Peak oil refers to the point when the maximum amount of oil that can be extracted globally is reached. Thereafter, production will tail off as remaining reserves become more difficult and more expensive to harvest. Many of the services that we currently take for granted - cheap flights, cheap imports and global distribution of food - will be radically curtailed.

The Soil Association is looking ahead and preparing for a post peak oil world as an organisational priority. Our aim is to create a new, localised food culture that will deliver long-term quality of life in place of the old dynamic of unrestrained globalisation and short-termist exploitation.

During our lifetime most of us have enjoyed – even taken for granted – the benefits of 'cheap' oil. Peak oil refers to the point when the maximum amount of oil that can be extracted globally is reached. Thereafter, production will tail off as remaining reserves become more difficult and more expensive to harvest.

Having looked into this issue in depth, the Soil Association is convinced that in the very near future (perhaps as soon as 5 to 7 years' time), all our lives will be changed significantly by this reduced availability and affordability of oil.

After the peak oil year – which could be as soon as 2008 - the price of oil is likely to rise dramatically. Putting it graphically, 'Imagine having a taxi meter in your car. Try tripling the fare and then see what happens!' Many of the services that we currently take for granted - cheap flights, cheap imports and global distribution of food - will be radically curtailed.

Global oil supplies will fall by around 22% by 2020, and by around 50% by 2035. Currently around a quarter of the UK's energy comes from oil (it is 36% globally). The oil reduction will soon be followed by a similar peak in global gas supplies, and is coming at the same time as growing global energy demand and the wind down in nuclear power in the UK.

However, there is now considerable investment around the world in other energy sources (coal and nuclear). Renewable energy (wind power in the UK) and some energy efficiency measures, all of which will help the oil shortfall.

One of the greatest impacts will be on how and where our food is produced. The dominant models of intensive agriculture and the global food trade depend on vast inputs of oil. In a post peak oil world, the combination of higher transport costs, climate change and increased conflict will necessitate us all relying far more on re-localised food supplies. Even though it requires far lower amounts of oil, organic farming is not exempt from the need to adapt.

You can find out more in our information sheets on peak oil and climate change and agriculture.

Over the last 20 years, the Soil Association has established organic farming as the most sustainable method of production and helped grow a burgeoning market for organic food. Now we must refine our focus if we are to adapt to the changing external circumstances which will touch all our lives very soon. The phrase that comes to mind is that we are 'building the ark of sustainable agriculture' for the new era ahead.

The challenge is immediate, but fear should not be the driver. The Soil Association is optimistic that we have the vision and means to create a new, localised food culture that will deliver long-term quality of life in place of the old dynamic of unrestrained globalisation and short-termist exploitation.